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Knowledge base · TOPIC-05

Provider outage or local network failure? A disciplined way to tell

Short answer: Use two independent evidence streams: local protocol measurements and the provider’s official status. Add one controlled alternate path when possible. A single timeout, a green status page, or a social-media report cannot establish root cause alone.

Keep the evidence classes separate

  • Observed: your timestamped DNS, TCP, TLS, HTTPS, WebSocket, IPv4/IPv6, interface, or route result.
  • Provider-reported: the provider’s official status component and incident timeline.
  • Inferred: the explanation that best fits both sets of evidence.
  • Unknown: a layer that was not measured or could not be measured safely.

OpenAI’s status page explicitly says its availability metrics are aggregate and that individual experience can vary by tier and feature. Conversely, a local failure does not establish a global incident.

A safe comparison sequence

  1. Timestamp the failing user action and keep its wording.
  2. Check the exact component on the official status page.
  3. Run bounded local checks in order: DNS, TCP, TLS, then the approved application protocol. Keep IPv4 and IPv6 separate.
  4. If safe and available, repeat on one trusted alternate network. Do not change DNS, proxy, client version, and network all at once.
  5. Compare outcomes. If several unrelated providers fail locally while their official status is normal, a shared local/upstream path is a stronger hypothesis—not proof. If the provider reports an incident and your path fails consistently, provider impact is plausible, but local contribution can still coexist.

Common reasoning mistakes

A successful ping does not test TLS or the application protocol. A browser home page does not test a native agent’s persistent connection. A 401/403 is an HTTP response, not a connection timeout. A green status page is not a personalized SLA check. A failed request on one Wi-Fi network is not automatically a provider outage.

Tivor’s perspective

Tivor’s report should show the local path and provider-reported status side by side. It should never merge them into one authoritative badge. Missing or browser-blocked evidence stays incomplete; backend failure must not be blamed on the user’s network.

What to try, then verify

Try one reversible change: move to a trusted alternate connection. Repeat the identical workflow and the same bounded checks. If the failure follows the provider across paths and aligns with an official incident, wait and retest. If it follows only one path, investigate that path layer by layer.